China had maintained a modest nuclear capability and posture for decades, but recent efforts to significantly expand its nuclear arsenal seem to deviate from traditional policy and defy international expectations. From a previously “lean and effective” nuclear force, China has shifted to a “powerful/high-level strategic deterrent capability,” as announced at the 20th Party Congress. This presentation will explore how and why China’s nuclear thinking and policy has evolved in recent years. It will also analyze the implications for the U.S.-China relationship and broader security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region. Finally, the presentation will conclude with a discussion of possible future steps for the international community to engage with China on nuclear weapons, arms control, and strategic stability issues.
Tong Zhao is a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as well as a visiting research scholar at Princeton University’s Science and Global Security Program. His research focuses on nuclear weapons policy, deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, hypersonic weapons, and China’s security and foreign policy. He holds a PhD in science, technology, and international affairs from Georgia Institute of Technology, as well as an MA in international relations and a BS in physics from Tsinghua University. He is the author of “Tides of Change: China’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability” and “Narrowing the U.S.-China Gap on Missile Defense: How to Help Forestall a Nuclear Arms Race.” He serves on the board of directors of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation. Zhao is also an associate editor of Science & Global Security and is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials.
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China and its Changing Nuclear Weapons Policies
Mon Mar 6, 12PM | Liu Institute Case Room
Presented by SPPGA and CCR
