“A Venezuelan oil revival could also subtly increase American leverage over Canada — particularly Alberta — through its impact on oil prices, investment flows and longstanding debates about Canada’s energy future.”
As Donald Trump reshapes hemispheric power dynamics and Prime Minister Mark Carney pivots toward China, Canada finds itself navigating an unprecedented geopolitical moment. From Venezuela’s regime change to the unraveling of global trade rules, SPPGA faculty are examining how these shifts threaten Canadian interests while forcing difficult strategic choices about the country’s economic and political future.
Venezuela’s Upheaval Threatens Canadian Oil
Following Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. military forces in what Trump dubbed “Operation Absolute Resolve,” Professor Philippe Le Billon warns of severe consequences for Canada’s oil sector. Writing in The Conversation, “A regime change in Venezuela could have grim consequences for Canada’s oil sector,” Le Billon explains that Canada and Venezuela compete in the same heavy-oil markets. If sanctions are lifted and Venezuela’s production revives, increased competition could pressure prices for Canadian heavy crude. American Gulf Coast refineries have historically sourced from Venezuela, Mexico, and Canada’s oilsands—more Venezuelan barrels could squeeze already vulnerable Canadian margins. Beyond prices, investment could shift away from Alberta’s oilsands toward Venezuela’s lower-cost reserves, further undermining new expansion and pipeline projects. Le Billon concludes that Venezuela’s future matters less for what happens in Caracas than for what it reveals: “oil no longer offers the geopolitical and fiscal certainty it once did.” Read the full article.
Trump’s Hemispheric Ambitions – Is Canada Next?
Venezuela is not an isolated incident but part of a broader strategy. Professor Maxwell Cameron, in a Maclean’s video and article “Trump Wants the Western Hemisphere—Canada Included,” analyzes Trump’s “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, a reassertion of U.S. supremacy across the Americas. Cameron provides critical historical context: between 1898 and 1994, the U.S. intervened to change Latin American governments at least 41 times, roughly once every 28 months. Trump’s Venezuela operation marks the opening move in this renewed hemispheric domination. With Trump openly calling for Canada to become the 51st state and threatening sovereignty over Greenland, Cameron raises an uncomfortable question: could Canada face similar pressure? Read the full article | Watch the video
@macleansmag Trump is asserting U.S. dominance over the Americas, starting with Venezuela. Is Canada next? #politics #politicaltiktok #donaldtrump #greenland #venezuela ♬ original sound – Maclean’s magazine
Carney’s China Pivot: New Opportunities for Forestry
Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Mark Carney reached a “preliminary but landmark” trade agreement with China in January 2026, slashing tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1% in exchange for China lowering tariffs on Canadian canola, pork, seafood, and forestry products. Professor Juliet Lu examined the forestry implications in two media appearances. Speaking to CBC Radio’s The Early Edition in “What’s at stake for B.C.’s forestry sector as Prime Minister Mark Carney visits China,” and in “Does China still matter to B.C.’s forestry industry?,” Lu analyzed how the deal could reshape Canada’s wood products trade as Carney aims to boost non-U.S. exports by 50% by 2030. The agreement sparked sharp debate—Ontario warned of threats to auto workers while B.C. and the Prairies welcomed relief for forestry and agriculture. Listen to CBC coverage | Listen to podcast.
The Unravelling of Global Trade Rules
While Canada navigates bilateral pressures, the broader multilateral trading system continues to collapse. Professor Kristen Hopewell, Canada Research Chair in Global Policy, examines this crisis in East Asia Forum’s “India and Indonesia undermine the WTO fisheries agreement.” The WTO’s Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies entered into force in September 2025, marking the first binding rules to restrict harmful subsidies that drive overfishing. After more than 20 years of negotiations, it prohibits subsidies for illegal, depleted-stock, and unregulated high-seas fishing. But India and Indonesia—two of the world’s largest fishing nations—have refused to ratify. With approximately $22 billion in harmful subsidies provided annually and 600 million people relying on fisheries for their livelihoods, Hopewell argues that this undermines not only the fisheries treaty but also the WTO’s broader negotiation function. The refusal is part of a broader pattern of major economies abandoning multilateral cooperation, raising fundamental questions about the future of the rules-based international order. Read the full article.
Learn more about the research of Philippe Le Billon, Maxwell Cameron, Juliet Lu, and Kristen Hopewell.
